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Americans Will Flock Into $5,000 Gold and $500 Silver 02/04/2011
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Sarah Palin Food Inflation Controversy 11/10/2010
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Sarah Palin on Monday made a speech at a trade-association convention in Phoenix urging Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to “cease and desist” his “pump priming”. Palin said the United States, “shouldn’t be playing around with inflation.” She went on to say, "All this pump priming will come at a serious price. And I mean that literally: everyone who ever goes out shopping for groceries knows that prices have risen significantly over the past year or so. Pump priming would push them even higher."
 
After obtaining a copy of her speech, the Wall Street Journal's Sudeep Reddy wrote an article criticizing Palin's comments about food inflation, saying that, "Grocery prices haven’t risen all that significantly, in fact. The consumer price index’s measure of food and beverages for the first nine months of this year showed average annual inflation of less than 0.6%, the slowest pace on record." NIA finds it unfortunate that Reddy has been brainwashed into believing the government's phony consumer price index (CPI) numbers.
 
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)'s CPI is not a reliable indicator of U.S. food inflation or any type of price inflation. NIA estimates the real rate of annual food inflation in the U.S. to already be 5% and projects that this rate will rise above 10% in early 2011. NIA believes the BLS has been using both geometric weighting and hedonics to artificially manipulate the CPI downward. The U.S. government has a strong motivation to keep CPI increases as low as possible because since the year 1975, retired Americans receive annual Social Security payment increases that are tied to the CPI. NIA calculates that based on the way the BLS's CPI has understated the real rate of price inflation, Americans on Social Security should be receiving payments that are more than double what they receive today. Unfortunately, the government just announced last month that Americans on Social Security will receive no payment increase in 2011, despite the fact that food inflation will likely become the biggest crisis of the year, much larger than the mortgage crisis we have today.
 
When calculating food inflation, the government uses deceptive geometric weighting, which gives a lower weighting to goods that are rising in price and a higher weighting to goods that are falling in price. If the price of steak is rising while the price of hamburgers is falling, the CPI will give a lower weighting to steak and a higher weighting to hamburgers. The government justifies this by saying that expensive steak prices mean Americans are more likely to eat hamburgers. Therefore, the CPI no longer accounts for the price to maintain the same standard of living. The CPI is now calculated based on the realization that America's standard of living has been in decline and the expectation that it will continue to decline in the future.
 
Americans subconsciously realize that it is becoming a lot harder for them to make ends meet and put food on the table, but they don't realize that inflation is the cause of it. All Americans have heard stories from older relatives about how Hershey bars 45 years ago cost only 5 cents. Americans are aware that the U.S. has already experienced massive price inflation, but they don't look at inflation as a problem because these food price increases occurred over a very long period of time. NIA estimates that at a very minimum, the same U.S. price inflation that occurred over the past 100 years, will occur again over the next 10 years as the Federal Reserve's money printing causes the world to lose confidence in the U.S. dollar.
 
There is a misconception in America that wages have risen at the same rate as price inflation, when this is simply not the case. The median household income in the U.S. was $11,800 in 1975 and today is $49,777. If you go by the government's CPI, $11,800 in 1975 dollars equals $47,208 in today's dollars. If the government's CPI is to be believed, Americans are earning higher real incomes today than 35 years ago. However, the truth is, once you discount the effects of geometric weighting and hedonics, the median household income in 1975 of $11,800 actually equals $154,000 in today's dollars. This explains how in 1975, a father was able to support a family on just one income and college students were able to afford their own tuition with just a part-time summer job. Today, both parents need to work and families need to get deeply into debt just to survive.
 
The U.S. government is currently printing money just to survive. The Federal Reserve has held the Fed Funds Rate at 0-0.25% for nearly two years and just announced that it will be printing an additional $600 billion in new U.S. dollars by the end of June 2011. Since the beginning of September until now, just in anticipation of the Fed's upcoming quantitative easing, we have experienced the largest ever short-term increase in the history of agricultural commodity prices with corn rising by 32%, soybeans rising by 32%, orange juice rising by 12%, coffee rising by 19%, and sugar rising by 66%. These agricultural commodity price increases will begin to work their way into grocery stores nationwide in the weeks and months ahead, as food manufacturers and retailers are forced to raise their prices.
 
Food manufacturers and retailers who don't immediately raise prices and pass their rising costs on to U.S. consumers will likely go out of business. Sara Lee just announced yesterday that their first quarter profit fell 32% as price increases it enacted during the quarter were not enough to cover steep increases for agricultural commodities. Dean Foods saw their stock decline 18% yesterday to a new 52-week low due to escalating costs for butterfat, a key ingredient in its creamers and ice creams. Dean Foods' butterfat costs were up 70% over the same 2009 period.
 
The U.S. has no way of paying off its $13.7 trillion national debt and $80 trillion plus in unfunded liabilities without printing the money and creating massive price inflation. China’s Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. lowered its credit rating for the U.S. to A+ from AA on Tuesday with an outlook of "negative", saying the Fed’s plan to buy government debt will erode the value of the dollar and “entirely encroaches” on the interests of creditors. The Fed, by buying U.S. treasuries, is effectively monetizing the debt. In fact, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard W. Fisher admitted yesterday that the Fed is monetizing the debt, saying in a statement, "For the next eight months, the nation’s central bank will be monetizing the federal debt."
 
Bernanke testified under oath on June 3rd, 2009 in front of Congress saying, "The Federal Reserve will not monetize the debt." This was a lie and perjury. With baseball great Roger Clemens being indicted for lying to Congress under oath about a personal matter that is trivial compared to this, Bernanke should also be charged with similar crimes.
 
Although NIA believes Palin made a major mistake by supporting the government's $700 billion 'Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008', we give her credit for helping expose to the mainstream public that a massive inflationary crisis is ahead due to Bernanke's destructive monetary policies. On December 16th, 2009, the same day Time Magazine named Bernanke 'Person of the Year', NIA named Bernanke 'Villain of the Year' and said in an article that day, "When it costs $20 for a gallon of milk in a few years, Americans will have nobody to thank more than Bernanke."
 
The average American family currently spends 13% of their total annual expenditures on food compared to 34% on housing. As the Federal Reserve monetizes our debt and creates massive price inflation, these two numbers will reverse. For every 1% rise in consumer wages, NIA expects to see about a 4% rise in food prices. There are currently 42.4 million Americans on food stamps, up 17% from one year ago. The government does not have the resources to make these entitlement payments without printing the money and creating massive food price inflation. Ironically, food stamps are actually making those who receive them, need them even more.
 
If the U.S. government is somehow able to make it to the 2012 election without going bust due to a worthless U.S. dollar, by then it is likely that the average middle-class American will be dependent on the government to survive. Obama's strategy to get re-elected is to make as many Americans as possible dependent on him and scared to elect a true Libertarian candidate like Ron Paul, who will dramatically reduce government spending in an attempt to prevent hyperinflation. We must all work together to spread the word about NIA and educate as many Americans as possible to the truth about the U.S. economy and inflation.
It is important to spread the word about NIA to as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, if you want America to survive hyperinflation. Please tell everybody you know to become members of NIA for free immediately at: http://inflation.us
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Fed's Quantitative Easing to Starve Middle Class Americans 11/03/2010
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The Federal Reserve today announced that they will be implementing $600 billion in additional quantitative easing by the end of June 2011. The Federal Reserve will maintain its current policy of reinvesting principal payments from its security holdings and will expand its balance sheet by an additional $75 billion per month. The total announced balance sheet expansion was $100 billion higher than the public consensus of $500 billion. The Federal Reserve will continue to hold interest rates at record low levels of 0% to 0.25%, where they have been for nearly two years.
 
Quantitative easing is nothing more than the Federal Reserve printing money and creating inflation. This quantitative easing steals from the purchasing power of the incomes and savings of all Americans. While Americans are distracted by the mainstream media with daily debates by the Democrats and Republicans about taxes, U.S. taxes have almost no where near the effect on the lives of middle class Americans as does the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and quantitative easing. Instead of millions of Americans attending "tea party" events in Washington with Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin, they should be marching outside of the Federal Reserve building in New York chanting "End the Fed".
 
As highlighted in NIA's new documentary 'End of Liberty', which just surpassed 170,000 views in three days, prices of nearly all agricultural commodities have been spiraling out of control in recent months just in anticipation of today's quantitative easing announcement. In the past 60 days alone, cotton prices are up 54%, corn prices are up 29%, soybean prices are up 22%, orange juice prices are up 17%, and sugar prices are up 51%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones has only gained 9%.
 
The Federal Reserve is doing everything in its power to push stock market prices up so that the government can take credit for an "economic recovery", but as NIA has been warning for years, inflation gravitates most towards the goods that Americans need most in order to live and survive. There is nothing that Americans need more than food. The agricultural commodity price increases of the past two months will begin to make their way into all supermarkets nationwide during the next few months. Americans who have been struggling just to make their mortgage payments, will now be forced to stop paying their mortgage in order to buy food. Instead of hoping to get the latest Apple gadget for Christmas this holiday season, American children better be grateful if their parents are able just to put food on the table.
 
After the financial crisis of late-2008/early-2009 when the Federal Reserve implemented its first round of quantitative easing, the Dow Jones rallied by 74% from its low of 6,469.95 in March of 2009 to a high of 11,257.93 in April of 2010. By the Dow Jones rallying, the U.S. government was able to take credit for creating an "economic recovery", despite the fact that unemployment remained near multi-decade highs. NIA released a documentary on May 13th called 'Meltup', in which we said, "The truth is, our economy is not recovering, prices are rising only due to inflation." NIA proclaimed in 'Meltup', "If stocks were to see a nominal decline one last time, we will likely see Bernanke shoot up his largest ever dose of quantitative easing."
 
On July 19th, with the Dow Jones having declined by 11% from its April high down to 10,073.68, everybody in the mainstream media was talking about the threat of deflation. NIA released an article on July 19th entitled, "Double-Dip Recession Does Not Mean Deflation" in which we said, "NIA believes the Federal Reserve is quietly getting ready to implement 'The Mother of All Quantitative Easing'." NIA went on to say, "NIA fears that come this October, Bernanke is likely to shoot up his largest ever dose of quantitative easing."
 
Today, NIA's prediction for the most part came true. The Federal Reserve announced massive quantitative easing ($600 billion) and our timing was almost perfect (we missed October by a few days). This isn't quite what we consider to be the "The Mother of All Quantitative Easing", but don't worry, the Fed will announce additional quantitative easing soon if the slightest hint of deflation reappears.
 
Current U.S. price inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) is 1.5% and the Federal Reserve wants to see this number increase to 2%. The truth is, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses geometric weighting and hedonics to artificially manipulate this number lower than the real rate of inflation in order to keep American's social security payment increases as low as possible so that politicians in Washington have more of your money to spend. Based on the way the U.S. government previously calculated price inflation before the BLS's latest tactics to manipulate the CPI as low as possible, NIA believes current year-over-year price inflation is at least 5%.
 
No human being alive, especially Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, is smart enough to perfectly manage the rate of price inflation by printing money. By expanding the balance sheet by $600 billion, NIA believes the real price inflation rate will rise above 10% in early 2011. Once Americans realize just how rapidly their dollars are being debased and losing their purchasing power, it could cause a rush out of the U.S. dollar and trigger hyperinflation as early as year 2012.
 
America no longer has a free market economy. For everybody on Wall Street to be so fixated on the words that come out of Bernanke's mouth, it shows that the economic system we have is extremely fragile and vulnerable to collapse at any time. With prices of assets soaring in recent months just in anticipation of Bernanke's quantitative easing announcement, it shows that the world's financial system is already flooded with trillions of dollars in excess liquidity. Unless the U.S. government immediately implements dramatic spending cuts across the board, NIA believes the world is going to lose confidence in the U.S. dollar and it will be impossible for the U.S. to survive past the year 2015 without the U.S. dollar becoming worthless.
 
The fact that the Republicans took control of the House of Representatives last night is completely meaningless. If the U.S. government is to implement the spending cuts necessary in order to prevent hyperinflation, Americans will be faced with a second Great Depression, which NIA believes is a necessity and much better than the alternative. However, the Republicans will not risk being held responsible for the next Great Depression, because it will ensure Obama gets reelected in 2012. Therefore, NIA predicts that nothing is going to change with the Republicans taking over the House.
 
The only good news that came so far this week is that Rand Paul was elected to the U.S. Senate. NIA predicted in our top 10 predictions for 2010 that Rand Paul would win both the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in the State of Kentucky and the U.S. Senate seat and we are very proud that Rand Paul was victorious. NIA considers Rand Paul to be the true leader of the Tea Party movement because he fully understands the hyperinflation that awaits as a result of the Federal Reserve's actions.
 
NIA hopes to see Rand Paul filibuster any attempts by the U.S. Senate to raise the ceiling on our national debt. There is no reason to have a national debt ceiling if every time we reach it, Congress raises it. NIA prays that Rand Paul proposes a Balanced Budget Amendment in 2011, because this should be our government's top priority if it wants to restore confidence in the U.S. dollar and prevent a complete societal collapse.
 
NIA would like to apologize for the minor technical problems in the last two minutes of NIA's new 1 hour and 14 minute documentary 'End of Liberty', during the time in which NIA's President Gerard Adams was speaking. This small audio problem was caused by YouTube and out of our control. To make up for this, NIA's President will be featured in an exclusive NIA video later this month explaining in detail the hyperinflationary crisis that is ahead and how NIA members can prosper while the rest of America goes broke. As you know, NIA's President made a 378% return on his investment in silver call options that he suggested to you in February. He believes there will be many more opportunities similar to this for NIA members to become wealthy in the years ahead as the rest of America goes broke.
 
The most important thing for you to do to help your family members and friends survive the upcoming hyperinflationary crisis is to help them become educated to the truth. Tell them to become members of NIA for free at http://inflation.us and ask them to read our articles and watch our documentaries. If they have any questions about the U.S. economy or inflation, they can browse through our comprehensive 'NIAnswers' database and if their question hasn't already been answered by us, they can submit it to us to be added to the database. NIA will soon be announcing its most important new 'NIAnswers' of the past several months. Also, on December 7th, NIA will be releasing its latest update to its review of the major online sellers of gold and silver bullion.
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Don't Doubt Bernanke's Ability to Create Inflation 05/26/2010
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Don't Doubt Bernanke's Ability to Create Inflation
 
With the Dow Jones now down 11% nominally from its high last month, NIA has been getting hundreds of emails and phone calls asking if there is any way we could be wrong about the threat of hyperinflation in the U.S. and if indeed deflation is the real problem we need to be worried about. The names Nouriel Roubini, Robert Prechter, and Harry Dent get mentioned to us a lot, with many NIA members asking why these so-called "experts" believe deflation is in our future.
 
Roubini, Prechter and Dent have been wrong about the overwhelming majority of their economic forecasts over the past decade. When it comes to their latest predictions about deflation, they will actually be right to some extent. We will see deflation in some assets like stocks and Real Estate, but only when priced in terms of real money - gold and silver. In terms of dollars, prices for pretty much all goods and services are guaranteed to rise dramatically over the next few years. Creating inflation is the only thing in the world Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke knows how to do and is good at.
 
During the past week, the mainstream media has shifted from saying we are experiencing an "economy recovery" to now saying we are at risk of a "double dip recession". Nothing fundamentally has changed in our economy. The fact is, the U.S. economy has been in a recession since mid-2000. All government reported positive GDP growth since mid-2000 has been due to nothing but inflation. Our economy should have experienced a depression in 2001 and an even greater one in 2008, but the depression has been temporarily avoided at the expense of an inevitable Hyperinflationary Great Depression down the road.
 
NIA believes it is impossible for the U.S. to experience price deflation when the Federal Reserve has held interest rates at 0% for the past 17 months. Sure, there will probably be a second wave of mortgage defaults that could cause another round of forced liquidations on Wall Street, but during any future period of forced liquidations, we doubt the U.S. dollar will still be looked at as the "safe haven" it was in 2008/2009. Gold and silver will soon be looked at as the only real safe havens because they are the only assets that provide protection from both a deteriorating economy and massive inflation. Precious metals will decouple from the Dow Jones and we will begin to see gold and silver rise at the same time as the stock market falls.
 
Bernanke was questioned yesterday following a speech at the Bank of Japan about whether a 4% inflation target would be better than the Fed's current inflation target of 2%. Bernanke responded that "it would be a very risky transition" if the Fed changed their inflation target, claiming that U.S. inflation expectations are currently "very stable". (NIA estimates the real rate of U.S. price inflation is already north of 5%.)
 
Unfortunately, no policymaker in the world is smart enough to accurately control the rate of price inflation through the manipulation of interest rates, and certainly not Bernanke. It's mind-boggling to us how the mainstream media could believe anything Bernanke says about inflation after how wrong he has been about everything else. Maybe the press has already forgotten that it was Bernanke who in July of 2005 said, "it's a pretty unlikely possibility" that home prices will decline across the country, "house prices will slow, maybe stabilize but I don't think it's going to drive the economy too far from its full employment path". We are 100% sure that Bernanke will be proven wrong again when it comes to inflation.
 
The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied from 75 to 87 since December and is approaching its high from March of 2009 of 89. This has given Bernanke the cover to keep interest rates at a record low 0%, but NIA believes Bernanke is misreading these economic signals. When the U.S. Dollar Index reached its high last year of 89, gold was only $900 per ounce. Today, gold is approximately $1,200 per ounce. The fact that gold has held up so strong despite a rapidly rising U.S. Dollar Index, proves that our financial system is getting ready to overdose on excess liquidity. The U.S. Dollar Index has rallied only because it is heavily weighted against the Euro. The Euro is now overdue for a huge bounce, which we believe will send the U.S. dollar crashing while sending gold to new record highs.
 
It's not good for us to pay too much attention to short-term volatility in the financial markets. Short-term "noise" often causes investors to second guess what they know is true. In our new documentary 'Meltup' (which has now surpassed 441,000 views in 10 days) we said, "If stocks were to see a nominal decline one last time, we will likely see Bernanke shoot up his largest ever dose of quantitative easing, which could turn the current Meltup into hyperinflation."
 
We are seeing signs of this coming true already. Washington is now calling for another stimulus. Larry Summers, senior economic adviser to President Obama, has asked Congress to begin drafting a new stimulus bill in an attempt to prevent a "double dip recession". The proposed size of this new stimulus is so far only $200 billion, much smaller than the last $787 billion stimulus bill. However, we are sure Congress will increase the size of it, especially if stocks continue their nominal decline. The new stimulus bill will likely coincide with trillions of dollars in additional quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.
Please continue to spread the word about NIA by telling your friends and family to subscribe for free at: http://inflation.us
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